Best Supporting Actress Predictions & Odds

The Oscars will name their 2019 nominees in a few weeks (as of this writing), so it’s time to take a look at who the leading contenders for Best Supporting Actress are. Even though awards season has come into greater clarity recently with various precursors weighing in, there’s still a long way to go before the race is settled. One group that is starting to come into greater focus, however, is the acting categories, by virtue of the Screen Actors Guild recently unveiling their own nominations. While organizations like the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards can provide some insight, the guilds are the ones cinephiles follow most closely when trying to prognosticate the Oscars.

Like every year, there’s no shortage of outstanding performances in the running – many of whom are names quite familiar to awards voters already. In the months leading up to the Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actress looked like it would be one woman’s trophy to lose, but some twist and turns along the way have muddied up the picture a bit. Here are Screen Rant’s predictions for the 2019 Best Supporting Actress nominations.

Related: Screen Rant’s 2019 Best Actress Predictions

Amy Adams – Vice

Much like Leonardo DiCaprio prior to The Revenant, Adams is an Academy darling, but can never seem to secure the win. Over the course of her career, she’s amassed a total of five nominations, most recently for her performance in David O. Russell’s 2013 crime film American Hustle. Not only that, she has some notable snubs on her résumé as well (including 2016’s Best Picture nominee Arrival). The Oscars love rewarding an overdue veteran for their body of work, and with six-time nominee Glenn Close competing in the Best Actress field, Adams may finally take home her elusive Oscar in the Supporting category. In Adam McKay’s Vice, she delivers a strong turn as Dick Cheney’s wife, Lynne.

Vice itself turned out to be one of the more polarizing offerings of awards season, but it’s finding traction with voters. Adams has been a beneficiary of that reception, seeing that’s she’s secured nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and the all-important SAG. While Christian Bale’s incredible, eerie transformation into the former U.S. Vice President has (understandably so) generated most of the media attention for Vice, Adams is as great as she’s ever been as Lynne, channeling her determined, steely demeanor. It feels like it’s inevitable Adams will win an Oscar one day, and it could be for this turn. If she starts picking up some major wins, it’ll be no contest.

Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Earlier in the season, King looked like the one to beat in this category. She won Best Supporting Actress for her performance as Sharon Rivers from the National Board of Review and scored additional nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. On top of that, she earned a plethora of other nods and wins from multiple film critics associations, making it seem as if she had the Oscar on lockdown. Nobody would have argued with that turn of events, especially since King is one of Beale Street’s most acclaimed aspects. But a funny thing happened on her way to the Oscar stage; she was snubbed by SAG. Five names were nominated in the guild’s Best Supporting Actress category and King was not one of them.

Related: Screen Rant’s If Beale Street Could Talk Review

It’s borderline impossible to overstate how significant the SAG miss is. Statistically speaking, it virtually eliminates King’s chances of winning. The last time the Oscar’s Best Supporting Actress winner did not score at least a SAG nomination was 2001, when Jennifer Connelly won for her performance in A Beautiful Mind. It’s something that’s only happened twice in history since the SAG Awards began in 1994 (Marcia Gay Harden in 2000’s Pollock is the other outlier), so King has history working against her. This isn’t to say she won’t be nominated for the Academy Award (Beale Street does have a lot of support), but King will have to buck a trend to come out on top on Oscar Sunday.

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Yorgos Lanthimos might be an acquired taste for some, but awards voters happily ate up his period costume drama, which chronicles a rivalry between Lady Sarah (Rachel Weisz) and Abigail (Stone) for the affections of one Queen Anne (Best Actress candidate Olivia Colman). The collected efforts of that main trio deserves a lion’s share of the credit for why the film works as well as it does, so it isn’t surprising all of them are in the running. Stone, already a winner for La La Land (and another nomination for Birdman) was afforded an opportunity to display more of her range, gleefully sinking her teeth into a darkly comedic role – and she more than rose to the occasion. With The Favourite set to be a major player across the board, Stone’s in line for another nomination.

Stone’s already been recognized for her efforts by the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics’ Choice Awards, checking off the big boxes en route to Oscar Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see if she can pull a Christoph Waltz and win two statues relatively close to each other (Waltz won Best Supporting Actor in 2009 and 2012), which is a pretty rare feat. Since Stone earned Best Actress just two years ago, voters may decide to go a different route – especially with the long overdue Adams waiting in the wings. There’s also something else that hurts Stone’s prospects: her own co-star.

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Much like Stone, Weisz was also nominated for the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics’ Choice Award for her performance as Lady Sarah. Coincidentally, she is also a former Academy Award winner, taking home Best Supporting Actress in 2005 for The Constant Gardner. Once again, Weisz finds herself back in the race, but she’s facing some stiff competition – including her plucky co-star. It seems all but guaranteed Stone and Weisz will go up against each other this year, but what does that mean for either of their chances?

Related: Read Screen Rant’s The Favourite Review

In Oscar history, 34 films have been double-nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category (two of them, Come to Stable and Pinky, were released in 1950). In 22 of those instances, the Academy Award went to someone from a completely different movie, which is roughly a 65 percent clip. Those are not insurmountable odds for the Favourite ladies to overcome, but this is still somewhat difficult to pull off. To be fair, in the two most recent occurrences of this happening, the double-nominated film did win the Oscar (Melissa Leo topped Amy Adams in The Fighter; Octavia Spencer beat out Jessica Chastain for The Help), so it’s possible someone from The Favourite emerges victorious. But voters will need to truly love one performance over the other. It’ll be fascinating to see what happens.

Page 2: Claire Foy, Emily Blunt, and Margot Robbie

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